MATRIX-BASED PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The goal of this research is to model and analyze project success and the risks of project planning. The proposed agent-based methods can represent traditional, agile and hybrid project management approaches, while the proposed risk e®ect simulation framework models the changes in time and cost demands as well as the changes in customer requirements (scope creeps). Since most quantitative risk management techniques are based on fixed project plans or on a few predetermined alternatives, °exible (such as agile and extreme project management) approaches { where the project structure can be modified { are minimally supported. Therefore, the changes in customer/management claims that can modify the project structure, are very hard to model and forecast. The proposed matrix-based risk management method allows us to model and compare the risks and success of traditional, agile and hybrid project management approaches by handling °exible structures and modeling °exible and iterative techniques. Since the proposed method can model both the traditionally investigated risk factor e®ects (like delays, cost overruns and resource overloading) and the project structure changes (as a novel element), it could be an essential feature of a risk-based decision support system. This agentbased decision support framework can also decide which combination of themodeled project structures and project management approaches is the most adequate for a given project completion.